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Emmy Predictions 2012: Miniseries or Made for Television Movie categories

The Primetime Emmy Awards are coming this Sunday, Sept. 23rd. ABC will be airing them with Jimmy Kimmel as the host. Every day this week I’ll be giving my predictions in every category. The second set of categories, the always exciting Made for Television Movie or Miniseries nominees. Even though these are usually the boring part of the ceremony, I think the winners are a little bit up in the air this year. Almost every category, except one, can go a couple of ways. Let’s take a closer look.

Best TV Movie/Miniseries:
American Horror Story
Game Change
Hatfields & McCoys
Hemingway & Gellhorn
Luther
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia

WILL WIN: Game Change
SHOULD WIN: American Horror Story

This is going to be an interesting category. The only show that I don’t think has a shot at the win is Hemingway & Gellhorn, mostly because it missed out on a writing nomination. Four of the nominees: Game Change, Hatfields & McCoys, Luther & Sherlock all received both writing & directing nominations. Getting nominated for both are good indications that your program was well liked. Then there is American Horror Story, which didn’t receive either, but it tied for the most nominations with Mad Men. Getting rid of those factors, I think that this is down to Game Change or Hatfields & McCoys. Both were popular and well recieved. Hatfields got about 15 million viewers for all three parts of the miniseries, which are ratings that any broadcast network would die for. But ultimately Game Change will prevail. It’s topical and has the HBO pedigree behind it. But watch out for Sherlock, which could be spoiler.

Best Actor – TV Movie/Miniseries:
Kevin Costner, Hatfields & McCoys
Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia
Idris Elba, Luther
Woody Harrelson, Game Change
Clive Owen, Hemingway & Gellhorn
Bill Paxton, Hatfields & McCoys

WILL WIN: Kevin Costner
SHOULD WIN: Woody Harrelson

This is another another interesting category. All six nominees’ programs have been nominated in the main category, and all are pretty respected actors. I think this is going to be down to Costner, Harrelson or Owen. I’m predicting Kevin Costner for the moment. As I stated before, Hatfields & McCoys was one of the most watched programs of the year, but I also think he’ll have a sympathy factor with his speech at Whitney Houston’s funeral playing into it. I might be the only one thinking about that, but you never know what voters will be thinking about when casting their ballots.

Best Actress – TV Movie/Miniseries:
Connie Britton, American Horror Story
Ashley Judd, Missing
Nicole Kidman, Hemingway & Gellhorn
Julianne Moore, Game Change
Emma Thompson, The Song of Lunch

WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN: Julianne Moore

This is one of the easier categories to predict. It’s funny that this actual comes down to a rehash of the 2002 Best Actress race at the Oscars, where Kidman & Moore were both nominated. Once again they are competing against each other and are the frontrunners in the category. I think Moore takes it easily though. Game Change was better received than Hemingway & Gellhorn and Moore’s portrayal of Sarah Palin was one of the most talked about performances of the year. It’ll be nice to see Julianne Moore take home some hardware (which hasn’t happened in quite some time). And it’ll be the second time someone wins an Emmy for playing Sarah Palin (Tina Fey won for her SNL appearances in 2009).

Best Supporting Actor – TV Movie/Miniseries:
Tom Berenger, Hatfields & McCoys
Martin Freeman, Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia
Ed Harris, Game Change
Denis O’Hare, American Horror Story
David Stathairn, Hemingway & Gellhorn

WILL WIN: Ed Harris
SHOULD WIN: David Strathairn

This one is a little bit harder to predict. Usually these categories go to respected actors that haven’t gotten their due. And that applies to four of the nominees. But even then, I don’t think Martin Freeman is out of it at all. I would like to see David Strathairn taking home his second Emmy for his performance as John Dos Passos. But I think Ed Harris’ work as John McCain will get him an Emmy award. Voters love to see actors taking on real life people, and Harris fits that bill.

Best Supporting Actress – TV Movie/Miniseries:
Frances Conroy, American Horror Story
Judy Davis, Page Eight
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
Sarah Paulson, Game Change
Mare Winningham, Hatfields & McCoys

WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN: Jessica Lange

I’m not even going to get into detail with this category. I think the producers should hand this out as the first award of the evening because it’s such a foregone conclusion. Lange won both the Golden Globe and SAG award for her work on the show, and it was a pretty amazing performance. If she doesn’t win, it’ll be one of the biggest upsets ever.

Best Writing – TV Movie/Miniseries:
Game Change – Danny Strong
Hatfields & McCoys – “Part 2” – Bill Kerby, Ted Mann & Ronald Parker
The Hour – Abi Morgan
Luther – Neil Cross
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia – Steven Moffat

WILL WIN: Game Change
SHOULD WIN: The Hour

These categories are always hard to predict. There are instances where a program wins both Writing & Directing, then loses the Program award (The Life & Death of Peter Sellers and Prime Suspect: The Final Act are two recent examples). So these could go any way. I’m going to go with Game Change here. Danny Strong’s a previous nominee for Recount and Game Change looks likely the win the main category. This is Sherlock‘s best chance at taking home an Emmy and it wouldn’t surprise me if they picked up one here. I would love to see The Hour win though. It was one of my favorite shows of the year and should have been nominated for much more than just its writing.

Best Directing – TV Movie/Miniseries:
Game Change – Jay Roach
Hatfields & McCoys – Kevin Reynolds
Hemingway & Gellhorn – Philip Kaufman
Luther – Sam Miller
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia – Paul McGuigan

WILL WIN: Hatfields & McCoys
SHOULD WIN: Hemingway & Gellhorn

As I said with the Writing category, this could go any way and not make any sense whatsoever. I’m going to with Hatfields & McCoys. Westerns have won this category before and it could possibly win here. Game Change is still a strong possibility. Jay Roach won basically every award for directing Recount a few years. He could pick up another one. Basically, anything can happen and I’m just taking a shot in the dark.

-I’ll be back tomorrow with predictions for the Reality categories.-

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