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Oscar Predictions: October Guesses

Oscar season is almost here. It’s still a little too early to have concrete predictions. A lot of the main contenders haven’t opened yet. I’m going by what a few of the top Oscar prognosticators have predicted so far and the reviews that have come out of the film festivals. Again, these are still early and for the most part I’m just taking a shot in the dark. It’ll be pretty awesome if these end up being the nominations and I got them right in October (not going to happen, probably).

Best Picture:
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Master
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

-Even if the films aren’t well received, I can’t imagine the voters not going for Lincoln & Les Miserables. Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild & The Master have been getting rave reviews from the critics. I expect them to do well with the critics awards and that will help through the awards season. Life of Pi is either going to do really well or nothing at all. Zero Dark Thirty just released a new trailer and it looks fantastic. Also watch out for Django Unchained. I think that could be a film that nobody has their eye on yet.

Best Director:
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

-Affleck, Hooper & Spielberg seem pretty safe at this point. I may be overestimating Bigelow and Lee. This category usually lines up with Best Picture and I’m still unsure about many of those predictions. Once we get a better hold on that category, this one will fall in line.

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

-This is an interesting category. Phoenix is the clear frontrunner at this point. I can see him sweeping the critics awards. We’ve got three real-life portrayals from Day-Lewis, Hopkins & Murray. And Hawkes has a lot of buzz from his movie where he plays a character with a severe disability. But Hugh Jackman could easily get it if the Academy goes for Les Mis. Same for Bradley Cooper. And Denzel Washington seems to be in the mix for Flight. Which I’m not completely sold on him yet.

Best Actress:
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Kiera Knightley, Anna Karenina
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

-I have absolutely no idea what to think of this category at this moment. Lawrence & Wallis seem to be the two that are being predicted everywhere. Cotillard could be a strong contender, but will her film be seen by enough people? Knightley’s role just seems like one that can be easily supported by the voters. And you can never count out Streep, who could receive her 18th Oscar nomination. Emmanuelle Riva from Amour has been predicted in a few places, but I think that film is being overestimated right now.  And apparently it’s just been reported that Anne Hathaway is going lead for The Dark Knight Rises. The category is such a clusterfuck right now, I could see her getting in. And the new trailer for Zero Dark Thirty makes it look like Jessica Chastain is the lead. She could easily slip in here.

Best Supporting Actor:
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

-The Academy loves the older gentlemen in this category and many of the top contenders have some veteran actors with some baity roles. It would actually be interesting if this ended up being the line-up. Four of them have already won (3 of them in this category). And that would leave McConaughey with the advantage. He’s had an outstanding year and has been getting strong reviews for a number of his films. The Academy likes to reward people with a strong body of work for the year. Other contenders: look out for the other supporting players from Argo, Lincoln & Zero Dark Thirty. There’s a lot of great actors in those roles but it remains to be seen which one of them will emerge contenders.

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, The Master
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions

-Adams, Field & Hathaway seem like sure bets. Chastain is too, unless she goes lead. Hunt does too, but I’m still not sure if the voters will go crazy for that film. Maggie Smith seems to be popping up in a lot of places for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Maybe voters are still crazy over her performance on Downton Abbey? I see a SAG nomination, but I don’t think she’ll have the support to go all the way. The two other people who I thought strongly about predicting are Samantha Barks & Helen Mirren. Barks has one of the most iconic roles in Les Miserables, but Hathaway seems to be stealing her thunder. It’s possible it could get two nominations though. And Mirren could possibly go lead for Hitchcock. But if she doesn’t, then she could take away Hunt’s nomination.