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Fall Schedule Predictions: ABC Needs a Little Change

Likely Renewed: America’s Funniest Home Videos, The Bachelor, Castle, Dancing with the Stars, Grey’s Anatomy, The Middle, Modern Family, Nashville, Once Upon a Time, Revenge, Scandal, Shark Tank, Splash, 20/20
TBA: Body of Proof, Family Tools, How to Live with Your Parents, Last Man Standing, Malibu Country, The Neighbors, Suburgatory
Likely Canceled: Family Tools, Happy Endings, Red Widow
Already Canceled/Ended: Don’t Trust the Bitch in Apartment 23, Last Resort, Private Practice, 666 Park Avenue, Zero Hour

*ABC has yet to make any renewals yet. But I think it’s pretty safe to assume that most of the shows will be making another go around in the fall. I would be shocked if any of them didn’t. There’s still a few question marks up in the air for the second category. It will depend of ABC’s pilots and how many of their shows they want to bring back. The only three that I think are doomed are Happy Endings, Family Tools & Red Widow. Those don’t have any shot at coming back. I’m disappointed about Happy Endings, but the Friday move doesn’t bode well and ABC has comedies they probably want to promote more than that.*

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7PM: America’s Funniest Home Videos
8PM: Once Upon a Time
9PM: Westside
10PM: Revenge

*Once Upon a Time has been successful at 8PM and ABC won’t waste the 7PM timeslot on something new, so AFV is also safe. Revenge has been a slight disappointment in the ratings. It’s been solid but not the ratings winner that ABC expected it to be. If they move it back an hour, they can use the OUAT lead-in to promote a new show and have a solid ratings winner in the 10PM spot. The Westside pilot sounds like a good balance between the two shows bookending it. Part soap-opera, part family drama. I don’t think it’ll succeed but it’ll be easy to promote.*

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8PM: Dancing with the Stars [Winter: The Bachelor]
10PM: Castle

*I don’t see this changing anytime soon. Dancing with the Stars definitely won’t be moving. ABC has a solid thing going with the switch-off between DWTS and The Bachelor in the winter. Castle is a solid performer that does well after DWTS (which hasn’t been the case for every show). It’s strong but not good enough to be moved to another night and maintain the same audience.*

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8PM: Super Fun Night
8:30PM: The Neighbors
9PM: Dancing with the Stars [Winter: Splash]
10PM: Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

*Tuesday has been a huge hole for ABC for quite some time. The DWTS results show is the only thing it has going for it, but even that hasn’t been reliable for providing a lead-in for a 10PM show. Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. is the most high profile pilot of the year and I have no idea where ABC is going to put it. I’m guessing here because Tuesday @ 10 has been the biggest trouble spot and that would probably solve that problem. 8PM is also a problem. They’ve tried comedies, dramas and reality shows. I guess they’ll go with comedies again because they have so many pilots in development. Rebel Wilson is a rising star and her pilot Super Fun Night could be high profile enough to lead-off the night. ABC loves The Neighbors and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them stick with it for another season. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Splash back again in the fall. But ABC might run out of second-class celebrities between that and DWTS. They’ll probably save it for Winter again.*

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8PM: The Middle
8:30PM: Bad Management
9PM: Modern Family
9:30PM: Back in the Game
10PM: Nashville

*ABC has a good thing going with The Middle & Modern Family leading off the hours and that won’t change. They just haven’t found good companions for the shows yet. Bad Management has been getting early positive notes in pilot reports, so that might be a good choice for the fall schedule. Back in the Game is in the same camp. That seems the most compatible with Modern Family and ABC needs a show that doesn’t lose so much of that lead-in. If either of them fail, ABC has a lot of comedy pilots that will be ready to fill in one of those holes if the new shows don’t work out. Nashville hasn’t been doing fantastic in the ratings, but ABC is promoting it like crazy and I don’t think they’re in a hurry to move it.*

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8PM: Big Thunder
9PM: Grey’s Anatomy
10PM: Scandal

*Grey’s Anatomy is still doing incredibly well in this time slot, regularly winning the hour in 18-49. Scandal has become one of the most exciting and talked-about shows on TV. That won’t be moving yet. The only probably spot all of these years has been 8PM. I don’t think anything has worked there. Big Thunder got postivie notices from the Buzz Report on Deadline. It’s a family drama that sounds like a total rip-off of Everwood. It’ll probably be an appropriate 8PM show that will get canceled after a few weeks. But maybe this will be the spot ABC will try to add more comedies. Not sure.*

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8PM: Last Man Standing
8:30PM: King John
9PM: Shark Tank
10PM: 20/20

*Shark Tank & 20/20 are givens. The 8PM is less-so. ABC’s comedy line-up with Last Man Standing & Malibu Country has been doing well. The ratings have been relatively good for a Friday night except that they are skewing older than ABC probably wants. Last Man Standing has the better odds because it will be going into its third season (closer to syndication) and King John is the most compatible new multi-camera pilot they have to go with it. ABC did a pilot last year with John Leguizamo that they shot twice. They want to be in the Leguizamo business and this might be the time they go for it.*

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Mid-Season Shows: Once Upon a Time in Wonderland, Pulling, Spy, Wife Swap

*Once Upon a Time in Wonderland is a potential spin-off from the Sunday night staple. They are only doing a 7-10 minute pilot presentation, so it might not be ready for the fall and they can use the original show to build up to it in mid-season. Pulling & Spy sound like the most interesting pilots to me and have the best casts. It might be wishful thinking on my part but ABC always has comedies on deck and ready to go if something fails. I hope its those two. More episodes of Wife Swap are also possibilities for mid-season replacements. Maybe they’ll bring back one other returning comedy too. Suburgatory seems like the best bet, but I’m not counting on it.*

-Credit to The Futon Critic for a comprehensive list of pilots in development. Made this much easier to predict and talk about.-