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Tony Nominations Predictions: Plays Are Bigger Than Musicals This Year

*The 2013 Tony Awards will announce their nominations this Tuesday. For the first time in a while, the Play categories are much stronger and more interesting than the Musical categories. Before I started trying to do predictions I could only name three musicals that opened on Broadway this past season: Kinky Boots, Matilda and Annie. I had to be reminded of others and discover ones I didn’t even know existed. I have to say I’m really interested in the new revival of Pippin (which just opened last night). That seems like an ambitious production and likely to sweep the Musical side of things. Otherwise it looks like it’ll be a showdown between Kinky Boots and Matilda for everything.

The Play categories are ridiculously stacked. The Actress category is one of the most competitive in the awards history. Even outside of the five ladies I’m predicting, I could see Jessica Chastain, Jessica Hecht, Laurie Metcalf and Sigourney Weaver all be nominated also. I expect Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? to do very well. It was probably the best reviewed production in the show’s history.

UPDATE: It’s been announced by the Tony committee that the four actresses from Matilda will be receiving a Special Tony Award in recognition of their performances. They will not be eligible for Best Actress in a Musical. Also, Kristine Nielsen is being placed as a Lead Actress in a Play for Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike. I don’t think she’s getting nominated now.

Here are the rest of my predictions…*

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Best Play:
I’ll Eat You Last: A Chat with Sue Mengers
Lucky Guy
The Nance
Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike

Best Revival – Play:
Golden Boy
Macbeth
The Trip to Bountiful
Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

Best Actor – Play:
Alan Cumming, Macbeth
Tom Hanks, Lucky Guy
Nathan Lane, The Nance
Tracy Letts, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
David Hyde Pierce, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike

Best Actress – Play:
Bette Midler, I’ll Eat You Last: A Chat with Sue Mengers
Amy Morton, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
Fiona Shaw, The Testament of Mary
Holland Taylor, Ann
Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful

Best Featured Actor – Play:
Danny Burstein, Golden Boy
Bobby Cannavale, Glengarry Glen Ross
Madison Dirks, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
Lewis J. Stadlen, The Nance
Tom Sturridge, Orphans

Best Featured Actress – Play:
Ellen Burstyn, Picnic
Carrie Coon, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
Judith Ivey, The Heiress
Judith Light, The Assembled Parties
Vanessa Williams, The Trip to Bountiful

Best Director – Play:
Golden Boy – Barlett Sher
I’ll Eat You Last: A Chat with Sue Mengers – Joe Mantello
Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike – Nicholas Martin
Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? – Pam MacKinnon

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Best Musical:
Hands on a Hardbody
Kinky Boots
Matilda
Motown: The Musical

Best Revival – Musical:
Annie
The Mystery of Edwin Drood
Pippin
Rodgers and Hammerstein’s Cinderella

Best Actor – Musical:
Bertie Carvel, Matilda
Jim Norton, The Mystery of Edwin Drood
Billy Porter, Kinky Boots
Stark Sands, Kinky Boots
Matthew James Thomas, Pippin

Best Actress – Musical:
Carolee Carmello, Scandalous
Lilla Crawford, Annie
Valisia LeKae, Motown: The Musical
Patina Miller, Pippin
Laura Osnes, Rodgers and Hammerstein’s Cinderella

Best Featured Actor – Musical:
Gabriel Ebert, Matilda
Hunter Foster, Hands on a Hardbody
Dan Lauria, A Christmas Story
Terrence Mann, Pippin
Daniel Stewart Sherman, Kinky Boots

Best Featured Actress – Musical:
Annaleigh Ashford, Kinky Boots
Victoria Clark, Rodgers and Hammerstein’s Cinderella
Charlotte d’Amboise, Pippin
Katie Finneran, Annie
Andrea Martin, Pippin

Best Director – Musical:
Kinky Boots – Jerry Mitchell
Matilda – Matthew Warchus
Motown: The Musical – Charles Randolph-Wright
Pippin – Diane Paulus

Best Book – Musical:
Kinky Boots – Harvey Fierstein
Matilda – Dennis Kelly
Rodgers and Hammerstein’s Cinderella – Douglas Carter Beane
Scandalous – Kathie Lee Gifford

Best Score:
Bring It On: The Musical – Amanda Green, Tom Kitt & Lin-Manuel Miranda
Hands on a Hardbody – Trey Anastasio & Amanda Green
Kinky Boots – Cyndi Lauper
Matilda – Tim Minchin

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