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Emmy Predictions: Actor & Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries

I continue my series of Emmy predictions with the lead acting categories for TV Movie/Miniseries. I’m going to take a look at the categories and make groupings: Tier One, Tier Two and Tier Three. Tier One placements are for people/programs that I fully expect to get an Emmy nomination. Tier Two are people/programs that are still in the running but could be left out. And Tier Three are people/programs that I don’t expect to be nominated, but they would be a little bit of a surprise. Let’s take a look at the categories…

BEST ACTOR – TV MOVIE/MINISERIES:
TIER ONE:
Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra
Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Al Pacino, Phil Spector

*Obviously I think everyone agrees that Michael Douglas is walking away with this award. It was a done deal once they announced the project was airing on HBO. I really thought Matt Damon was going to go supporting, but after seeing the film there was no way they could justify that. Al Pacino playing a real life figure is a recipe for success. These three are absolute locks.*

TIER TWO:
Kenneth Branagh, Wallander: An Event in Autumn
Benedict Cumberbatch, Parade’s End
Toby Jones, The Girl

*These three guys are fighting for the final two spots. Kenneth Branagh is a respected actor and a previous nominee for the first batch of Wallander films. He wasn’t nominated for the last ones and I’m not sure if Emmy voters are going to remember him when it comes time to vote. Benedict Cumberbatch was nominated last year for the Sherlock series. This time it’s an HBO production, and like Zachary Quinto, I think the Star Trek film will keep him fresh in voters’ minds. The Girl wasn’t entirely well received, but Jones is playing Alfred Hitchcock and Emmy voters love real life portrayals in this category.*

TIER THREE:
Diogo Morgado, The Bible
Dominic West, The Hour
Ben Whishaw, The Hour

*These three are longshots. I’m not sure how Emmy voters will respond to The Bible in the main categories, but the actor playing Jesus could be nominated if the voters really loved it.*

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FINAL PREDICTIONS:
Benedict Cumberbatch, Parade’s End
Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra
Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Toby Jones, The Girl
Al Pacino, Phil Spector

*I think this is a solid lineup. Ultimately it doesn’t matter who ends up nominated because it’s a sure thing that Michael Douglas will be taking home that trophy in September.*

BEST ACTRESS – TV MOVIE/MINISERIES:
TIER ONE:
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Asylum
Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake
Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals

*Jessica Lange won for AHS last year in the supporting category and she’s very likely to win again this year. Helen Mirren is one of the most nominated actresses in Emmy history. She won’t have a problem picking up another nomination this year. USA has been campaigning pretty well for Political Animals, which will translate to a nomination for Sigourney Weaver at the very least. And even though Elisabeth Moss isn’t as big of a name as some of the other contenders in this category, her work on Mad Men is going to help her secure a nomination.*

TIER TWO:
Rebecca Hall, Parade’s End
Laura Linney, The Big C: hereafter
Sienna Miller, The Girl

*It’s between these three ladies for the final spot. I would say that Laura Linney is slightly ahead. She’s been nominated here a few times. But the ratings for the final episodes of The Big C weren’t terrific and people seem to be over the program. While I expect her to be nominated, it wouldn’t take me by surprise if Rebecca Hall or Sienna Miller were able to pull ahead and take away her nomination.*

TIER THREE:
Angela Bassett, Betty & Coretta
Brenda Blethyn, Mary and Martha
Romola Garai, The Hour
Queen Latifah, Steel Magnolias
Hilary Swank, Mary and Martha

*You can’t count out these ladies. Even though Betty & Coretta got terrible reviews, voters could check off Angela Bassett based on the role she’s playing in the film. Mary and Martha was also awful, but that might not keep voters from voting for Blethyn or Swank based on name recognition.*

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FINAL PREDICTIONS:
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Asylum
Laura Linney, The Big C: hereafter
Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake
Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals

*This is another solid lineup in the leading acting category. Right now I would say Jessica Lange is going to be picking up another Emmy, but it depends on how Emmy voters respond to Political Animals and Top of the Lake. If both of those programs pick up more nominations than expected, I could see Emmy voters looking for a change of pace and awarding Elisabeth Moss or Sigourney Weaver with their first Emmy awards.*

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