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Emmy Predictions: Writing & Directing for TV Movie/Miniseries

I start my series of Emmy predictions with the Writing and Directing categories for TV Movie/Miniseries. I’m going to take a look at the categories and make groupings: Tier One, Tier Two and Tier Three. Tier One placements are for people/programs that I fully expect to get an Emmy nomination. Tier Two are people/programs that are still in the running but could be left out. And Tier Three are people/programs that I don’t expect to be nominated, but they would be a little bit of a surprise. Let’s take a look at the categories…

BEST WRITING – TV MOVIE/MINISERIES:
TIER ONE:
Behind the Candelabra – Richard LaGravenese
Phil Spector – David Mamet
Top of the Lake – Jane Campion & Gerard Lee

*Behind the Candelabra is going to do very well on Emmy night and this is another category where it looks like it’s going to win. David Mamet is a celebrated writer and even if Phil Spector doesn’t do well elsewhere, I would be shocked to see it left out in the writing category. And Jane Campion is respected enough to get Top of the Lake the writing/directing nominations it deserves.*

TIER TWO:
American Horror Story: Asylum – “Continuum” – Ryan Murphy
American Horror Story: Asylum – “I Am Anne Frank, Part 2” – Brad Falchuk
American Horror Story: Asylum – “Welcome to Briarcliff” – Tim Minear
The Hour – George Kay, Abi Morgan & Nicole Taylor
Parade’s End – Tom Stoppard
Political Animals – “Pilot” – Greg Berlanti

*I think American Horror Story: Asylum will be getting a writing nomination. I’m just not sure which episode will do it for them. It will probably be the premiere episode because it’s easy to award that for the entire season. But Ryan Murphy could push “Continuum” to the front. And “I Am Anne Frank, Part 2” was the most well received episode of the season. Based on merit it could be nominated. The Hour received a nomination here last year. But the second series wasn’t as well liked as the first one so maybe it won’t be receiving another one. Parade’s End didn’t have a lot of people talking, but Tom Stoppard is a respected writer. I’m not sure how Political Animals will be received by the Emmy voters. But it’s still very much in the conversation.*

TIER THREE:
The Bible – “Beginnings” – Richard Bedser, Alexnader Marengo, Colin Swash & Nic Young
The Bible – “Passion” – Richard Bedser, Abraham Christen Liando, Christopher Spencer, Colin Swash & Nic Young
The Girl – Gwyneth Hughes
Mary and Martha – Richard Curtis

*These shows are waiting in the wings. I don’t expect any of these to get nominations, but they are on the radar and won’t be completely out of left field if they appear on the list on July 18th.*

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FINAL PREDICTIONS:
American Horror Story: Asylum – “Welcome to Briarcliff” – Tim Minear
Behind the Candelabra – Richard LaGravenese
Parade’s End – Tom Stoppard
Phil Spector – David Mamet
Top of the Lake – Jane Campion & Gerard Lee

*I’m not sold on these predictions. I think the Emmy voters will be lazy and go with the AHS premiere and Tom Stoppard for Parade’s End.*

BEST DIRECTING – TV MOVIE/MINISERIES:
TIER ONE:
American Horror Story: Asylum – “Welcome to Briarcliff” – Bradley Buecker
Behind the Candelabra – Steven Soderbergh
Top of the Lake – “Episode Five” – Jane Campion & Garth Davis

*I fully expect these three programs to be nominated here. Steven Soderbergh is the biggest lock of the category and will be the eventual winner in September. American Horror Story will do well again and I’m guessing that the premiere episode will get the majority of the votes. While Top of the Lake has a little bit of a battle in other categories, the pedigree of Jane Campion keeps it a pretty sure thing.*

TIER TWO:
Phil Spector – David Mamet

*I’m curious to see how the Emmys respond to Phil Spector. The HBO factor helps out and keeps Mamet as a sure bet in this category. I could see him left off for one of the many other contenders waiting in the next tier…*

TIER THREE:
American Horror Story: Asylum – “The Coat Hanger” – Jeremy Podeswa
American Horror Story: Asylum – “Dark Cousin” – Michael Rymer
American Horror Story: Asylum – “I Am Anne Frank, Part 2” – Alfonso Gomez-Rejon
American Horror Story: Asylum – “The Name Game” – Michael Lehmann
The Bible – “Beginnings” – Crispin Reece
The Bible – “Homeland” – Tony Mitchell
The Bible – “Passion” – Tony Mitchell & Christopher Spencer
The Girl – Julian Jarrold
The Hour – “Episode 1” – Sandra Goldbacher
Mary and Martha – Phillip Noyce
Parade’s End – Susanna White
Political Animals – “Pilot” – Greg Berlanti

*This is a large group of contenders in this category. It doesn’t help that American Horror Story: Asylum and The Bible submitted so many episodes. I think it was to their detriment, but I can also see one of them slipping through and getting nominated. The other HBO programs: The Girl, Mary and Martha & Parade’s End remain contenders. And The Hour & Political Animals remain in the running.

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FINAL PREDICTIONS:
American Horror Story: Asylum – “Welcome to Briarcliff” – Bradley Buecker
Behind the Candelabra – Steven Soderbergh
Parade’s End – Susanna White
Phil Spector – David Mamet
Top of the Lake – “Episode Five” – Jane Campion & Garth Davis

*Ultimately, I think Parade’s End will get the final nomination slot. It’s an HBO/BBC production and Susanna White has been previously nominated in this category twice. The overload of episodes from AHS and The Bible will keep them from more nominations. Although they shouldn’t be too disappointed because Steven Soderbergh already has his name on the trophy.*

UP NEXT: Supporting Actor & Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries

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