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Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actor & Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

I continue my series of Emmy predictions with the people eligible in the categories for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series and Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series. I’m going to take a look at the categories and make groupings: Tier One, Tier Two and Tier Three. Tier One placements are for people/programs that I fully expect to get an Emmy nomination. Tier Two are people/programs that are still in the running but could be left out. And Tier Three are people/programs that I don’t expect to be nominated, but they would be a little bit of a surprise. Let’s take a look at the categories…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – DRAMA SERIES:
TIER ONE:
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

*These are the only three guys in this category I feel absolutely comfortable in predicting. Peter Dinklage & Aaron Paul are both previous winners in this category. They both had strong seasons again and I would be shocked not to see them back in the lineup. Mandy Patinkin should’ve been nominated last year but was surprisingly left off the list. I don’t see that happening this year. Homeland is even more popular and with the Drama Series last year, the show is obviously loved by the Emmy voters.*

TIER TWO:
Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Game of Thrones
Michael Cudlitz, Southland
Noah Emmerich, The Americans
Larry Hagman, Dallas
Freddie Highmore, Bates Motel
Rob James-Collier, Downton Abbey
Vincent Kartheiser, Mad Men
John Slattery, Mad Men
Dan Stevens, Downton Abbey
Corey Stoll, House of Cards
Sam Waterston, The Newsroom

*This is really tough to narrow down. There are cases for and against each of these contenders. As I’ve said with previous categories, I can see any combination of three men from this list taking up the rest of the nominaton slots. You’ve got guys on Emmy favorite shows, you’ve got respected TV veterans giving notable performances, you’ve got leads masquerading as supporting, and a possible posthumous nomination for a TV legend (Larry Hagman). I’ve going to make final predictions down below, but I could absolutely change my mind by Thursday morning. This is completely up the air and that makes it a lot more exciting.*

TIER THREE:
Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire
Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
Ben Feldman, Mad Men
Walton Goggins, Justified
Tony Goldwyn, Scandal
Jack Huston, Boardwalk Empire
Mads Mikkelsen, Hannibal
David Morrissey, The Walking Dead
John Noble, Fringe
Dean Norris, Breaking Bad
Chris Noth, The Good Wife
Bob Odenkirk, Breaking Bad
Jeff Perry, Scandal
Kevin Rahm, Mad Men
Michael Shannon, Boardwalk Empire

*While I’m not predicting any of these people, the Emmys do some strange things in the acting categories sometimes so it wouldn’t completely surprise me to see any of these names slip through the cracks and appear on the Emmy list on July 18th.*

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FINAL PREDICTIONS:
Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Vincent Kartheiser, Mad Men
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

*I’m going to go a little bit unconvential with my predictions. The Emmy voters loved Downton Abbey last year, and while I don’t think it will do as well this year I still think it will get a few acting nominations. Jim Carter is a memorable character on the show and I can see him being the Downton Abbey guy that gets nominated. I think voters watch Breaking Bad and they will not be able to forget Jonathan Banks’ turn last season. Last year Jared Harris got a surprise nomination for Mad Men. This year the standout supporting guy from the show was Vincent Kartheiser. He’s been waiting a few seasons for his first nomination and I think it will finally happen for him.*

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – DRAMA SERIES:
TIER ONE:
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Elizabeth McGovern, Downton Abbey
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

*The Downton Abbey ladies and Anna Gunn are the only ones I feel comfortable predicting at this point. It helps McGovern that she’s borderlie lead and being pushed supporting this year. Maggie Smith has won for this character the past two years. She’s one of the most talked about performances on television. I would be surprised if she didn’t at least get nominated. Anna Gunn was finally nominated last year and this year she has a killer tape with “Fifty-One”. She’s an upset for the win.*

TIER TWO:
Morena Baccarin, Homeland
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Rose Byrne, Damages
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Michelle Fairley, Game of Thrones
Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
January Jones, Mad Men
Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire
Kate Mara, House of Cards
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Monica Potter, Parenthood

*Much like the male category, this is a bitch to narrow down to three more spots. Most of these women have been previously nominated in this category for that specific role, now they are all fighting it out just to be nominated again. Christina Hendricks hasn’t missed a nomination in a couple of years, but her role was slightly smaller this year and she doesn’t have a great tape to submit. Even still, it wouldn’t surprise me to see her included again. This is a tough choice.*

TIER THREE:
Betsy Brandt, Breaking Bad
Laura Carmichael, Downton Abbey
Jennifer Carpenter, Dexter
Natalie Dormer, Game of Thrones
Sharon Gless, Burn Notice
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Regina King, Southland
Melissa Leo, Treme
Gretchen Mol, Boardwalk Empire
Emily Mortimer, The Newsroom
Olivia Munn, The Newsroom
Sandra Oh, Grey’s Anatomy
Jessica Pare, Mad Men
Alison Pill, The Newsroom
Kiernan Shipka, Mad Men
Chandra Wilson, Grey’s Anatomy

*While I’m not predicting any of these people, the Emmys do some strange things in the acting categories sometimes so it wouldn’t completely surprise me to see any of these names slip through the cracks and appear on the Emmy list on July 18th.*

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FINAL PREDICTIONS:
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Michelle Fairley, Game of Thrones
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Elizabeth McGovern, Downton Abbey
Monica Potter, Parenthood
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

*This was a tough category to narrow down. I went with Christine Baranski, Michelle Fairley and Monica Potter for the final three spots. Like Jared Harris for Mad Men last year, I think Fairley’s final episode is very remiscent of Harris and voters should go for that again. Monica Potter had a very memorable storyline on Parenthood this year. She’s gotten a lot of write-ups in major publications and she’s been making the rounds campaigning. I think it will pay off. And with Jason Ritter’s Guest nomination last year, voters are aware enough of Parenthood to notice Potter in this category. And even though The Good Wife has been fading every year at the Emmys, I don’t think they’re going to completely drop it from everything. Panjabi was a previous winner, but her storyline this season was highly criticized and Baranski is a more respected actresses, which is why I’m predicting her.*

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