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Emmy Predictions: Best Actor & Actress in a Comedy Series

I continue my series of Emmy predictions with the people eligible in the categories for Best Actor in a Comedy Series and Best Actress in a Comedy Series. I’m going to take a look at the categories and make groupings: Tier One, Tier Two and Tier Three. Tier One placements are for people/programs that I fully expect to get an Emmy nomination. Tier Two are people/programs that are still in the running but could be left out. And Tier Three are people/programs that I don’t expect to be nominated, but they would be a little bit of a surprise. Let’s take a look at the categories…

BEST ACTOR – COMEDY SERIES:
TIER ONE:
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Louis C.K., Louie
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

*Alec Baldwn and Jim Parsons have both won this award twice. This is their final chance to nominate 30 Rock and The Big Bang Theory is primed to upset in Comedy Series. I would be shocked if both of those men weren’t included. Louis C.K. is well respected in the industry and he was nominated as an actor two years ago before they recognized him last year also for his writing and directing. I would be very surprised to see him excluded.

TIER TWO:
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
Jake Johnson, New Girl
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes

*This category is really desperate for some new contenders. Jason Bateman and Jake Johnson are the best chances for that. Bateman was borderline Supporting with the new format of Arrested Development. I don’t know if he’ll have as much support here. Jon Cryer won this category last year, but Emmy voters sometimes snub people the year after they win. Don Cheadle was also nominated, but House of Lies doesn’t seem as popular this year and I’m not as sold on his return nomination. Johnny Galecki & Matt LeBlanc were both nominated here two years ago. Galecki is helped by the popularity of The Big Bang Theory. But LeBlanc is hurt by the fact that Episodes aired last summer and it wasn’t as well received as the first season. Voters will likely forget him.*

TIER THREE:
Will Arnett, Up All Night
Garret Dillahunt, Raising Hope
David Duchovny, Californication
Ashton Kutcher, Two and a Half Men
Rob Lowe, Parks and Recreation
Joel McHale, Community
Matthew Morrison, Glee
Matthew Perry, Go On
Josh Radnor, How I Met Your Mother
Adam Scott, Parks and Recreation
Charlie Sheen, Anger Management

*While I’m not predicting any of these people, the Emmys do some strange things in the acting categories sometimes so it wouldn’t completely surprise me to see any of these names slip through the cracks and appear on the Emmy list on July 18th.*

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FINAL PREDICTIONS:
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Louis C.K., Louie
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

*For the last three spots I went with Cheadle, Cryer and Galecki. Don Cheadle was nominated last year. Even though House of Lies isn’t a buzzed-about show like some of the others, Cheadle is a respected actor and the weak field of contenders pushes him ahead. I’ve learned never to bet against Jon Cryer, especially considering he has two Emmys for his role as Alan Harper. I’m hoping he won’t be nominated, but that doesn’t mean anything. And I’m putting Galecki in the final spot. He’s been out campaigning during the voting period, making appearances, and I think that he will lead him to his second Emmy nomination.*

BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY SERIES:
TIER ONE:
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

*I would be really surprised not to see these four women’s names appear on Emmy nomination morning. Julia Louis-Dreyfus won last year, Tina Fey is an Emmy favorite, Zooey Deschanel’s role is the type that Emmy voters usually go for, and last year showed that Lena Dunham is liked by the voters. I fully expect all of them to make the cut on Thursday.*

TIER TWO:
Laura Dern, Enlightened
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Mindy Kaling, The Mindy Project
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

*This is a tough call to make. Edie Falco and Amy Poehler have been nominated the last three years for their respective shows (and Falco even won in 2009). While they’ve been supported, the shows have been losing favor over the years and eventually one will be dropped. Melissa McCarthy won two years ago and was nominated last year, but nobody really cares about Mike & Molly. She’s only been nominated based on her name and recognition. Will that be enough to keep getting nominated. Laura Dern & Mindy Kaling are darkhorses. Dern’s show was cancelled but she’s been singled-out everywhere for her outstanding performance. Kaling could get in if it was a weaker year.*

TIER THREE:
Christina Applegate, Up All Night
Beth Behrs, 2 Broke Girls
Courteney Cox, Cougar Town
Portia de Rossi, Arrested Development
Kat Dennings, 2 Broke Girls
Sutton Foster, Bunheads
Patricia Heaton, The Middle
Lea Michele, Glee
Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds
Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope

*While I’m not predicting any of these people, the Emmys do some strange things in the acting categories sometimes so it wouldn’t completely surprise me to see any of these names slip through the cracks and appear on the Emmy list on July 18th.*

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FINAL PREDICTIONS:
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

*Basically I’m going with last year’s lineup minus Melissa McCarthy. Edie Falco is a respected actress, and even though I hate to bring this up, James Gandolfini died during the middle of the voting period and I think that will lead to a higher consciousness of Falco and more votes for her. Amy Poehler is so good in her role as Leslie Knope and I just don’t see voters not going with her, especially over McCarthy. In terms of winning: JLD should make more room on her mantle for Emmy #4.*

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