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Emmy Predictions: Best Comedy Series

I continue my series of Emmy predictions with the programs eligible in the category for Best Comedy Series. I’m going to take a look at the categoriy and make groupings: Tier One, Tier Two and Tier Three. Tier One placements are for programs that I fully expect to get an Emmy nomination. Tier Two are programs that are still in the running but could be left out. And Tier Three are programs that I don’t expect to be nominated, but they would be a little bit of a surprise. Let’s take a look at the categories…

The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family

*These are truly the only two shows that I feel have a 100% chance of being nominated. Modern Family has won this category for the past three years. The Big Bang Theory has been nominated for the past two, but I really feel like it has a decent shot at upsetting and winning the category. These two are safe.*

Arrested Development
New Girl
30 Rock

*These 6 shows are battling it out for 4 spots. It helps that Curb Your Enthusiasm is not eligible this year, leaving an open slot for a new show to break through. Girls is a pretty safe bet. Emmy voters loved it last year. Even though this season wasn’t as well received, it should still make it back in. Veep also stands a good chance. It could be a one-season nominee like Nurse Jackie or Weeds, but I think the fact that HBO supports it so much should be a good indicator that it will make it back. 30 Rock is a wild card. It’s been nominated for its past 6 seasons. But the show ended in January and voters could forget it by then. Plus Emmys don’t have any problem dropping a show in its final seasons. Louie was predicted by almost everybody last year and it was snubbed. Will it happen again? Louis C.K. is well respected by the industry and there’s an open spot without CYE. Arrested Development is a huge WTF? It obviously got a lot of attention for its rebirth on Netflix. But most people felt unsatisfied by it. And did Emmy voters get a chance to watch it all by the time ballots were due? And I think New Girl is a dark horse among the contenders. It’s a lighter/quirkier show that Emmy voters prefer. But it might be still too early in its run for Emmy voters to embrace it here.*

House of Lies
How I Met Your Mother
The Middle
The Mindy Project
Nurse Jackie
The Office
Parks and Recreation
Raising Hope
Two and a Half Men
2 Broke Girls

*While I’m not predicting any of these programs, the Emmys do some strange things in these categories sometimes so it wouldn’t completely surprise me to see any of these shows slip through the cracks and appear on the Emmy list on July 18th.*

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The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family
30 Rock

*I pretty much stand by all my arguments stated above. I think we’ll see the same 5 returning nominees from last with Louie now in the mix. The only show I’m really trepidatious about predicting is 30 Rock. I just don’t think it will have enough support to maintain its Comedy Series nomination. But I also don’t feel comfortable predicting Arrested Development or New Girl either. It’ll be interesting to see what happens on Thursday morning when the nominations are read.*

Best Actor & Actress – Comedy Series
Best Supporting Actor & Supporting Actress – Comedy Series
Best Writing & Directing – Comedy Series
Best Guest Actor & Guest Actress – Comedy Series