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Emmy Winner Predictions 2013: Comedy Series Acting categories

The Emmys are less than a week away! This week I’m going to be taking a look at all of the major categories being handed out on Sunday night. Now that the Creative Arts Emmys were held on Sunday, it should be slightly easier to predict who will win. Let’s take a look….

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Best Actor – Comedy Series:
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Louis C.K., Louie
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

*After Jon Cryer won this award last year…ANYTHING can happen. If he was able to beat out some Emmy favorites then it’s possible for anybody to do it. I might’ve even predicted Cryer had he been nominated again. Thankfully he was snubbed and won’t be repeating his win. I would be surprised to see Don Cheadle or Matt LeBlanc win. Cheadle is a respected actor but nobody really likes or talks about House of Lies. And even though Episodes is liked by the Emmy voters, I don’t think voters are going to remember the last season of Episodes or be impressed by his submission episode. The other four men are still very much alive in this race. Alec Baldwin hasn’t won since the third season of 30 Rock. But the show had a strong final season and got a resurgence in Emmy nomination totals. Maybe a goodbye win for Baldwin is in order. Arrested Development didn’t do too good in the nomination department, but Jason Bateman is well liked in the industry and his submission episode is pretty good. I can see him walking away with the win. The Big Bang Theory has gained in popularity every year and Parsons has a pretty good submission. I would look out for win #3 from him. Louis C.K. broke the nomination record again this year and he’s one of the most talked about performers in the industry. If he couldn’t win last year then I second guess his ability this year. The main diffrence between this year and last year is that Louie was actually nominated for Comedy Series. I think he’s going to take this year…but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Parsons walk away with #3.*

Winner Prediction: Louis C.K., Louie

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Best Actress – Comedy Series:
Laura Dern, Enlightened
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

*While I am pretty confident in my prediction of Julia Louis-Dreyfus…I could see a number of factors being introduced that would prevent her from winning this category. I think Laura Dern has the least likely chances of winning. She gives a great performance but her submission episode is very dramatic and very rarely doing cancelled shows win an acting category. Lena Dunham also seems a little bit out of it too. She’s up against some heavyweights this year and I don’t see her getting more votes than any of the other 4 ladies. While I personally didn’t like Nurse Jackie this season…voters did and even gave it a win for its Sound Mixing at the Creative Arts ceremony. Plus there’s also the outlaying factor of James Gandolfini’s recent death, giving Falco some extra press coverage. Tina Fey & Amy Poehler also got increased exposure this year because of their rave reviews for hosting the Golden Globes. Fey has only won this category once and this would be their final chance to give an Emmy for her performance as Liz Lemon. This is Poehler’s 4th nomination for Parks and Recreation and she’s overdue for a win. She submitted a one-hour episode where she gets to show a lot of range. But I think their lack of love for Parks and Recreation in other categories is a little bit telling. I don’t think the voters appreciate the show as much as everyone else. Going back to the start, I think Julia Louis-Dreyfus is looking very good for her fourth Emmy win. But there would be some reasonable explanations if she didn’t win on Sunday night.*

Winner Prediction: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

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Best Supporting Actor – Comedy Series:
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Adam Driver, Girls
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
Tony Hale, Veep
Ed O’Neill, Modern Family

*This category is completely up in the air. I can see any one of these six guys winning for a number of different reasons. Adam Driver seems the least likely. He’s not very well known and he’s one of the most polarizing characters on the show. He’s got a great episode submission that could win some people over though. Bill Hader would be the first SNL cast member to win in one of the main acting categories. It’s their final chance to award his work on SNL. I think he kinda botched his submission by not submitting the finale, but he still has the great puppet sketch in the Seth MacFarlane episode to save him. Tony Hale doesn’t have a strong tape, but I think his work on Veep combined with his work on Arrested Development gives him a strong body of work for voters to remember. Then there’s the Modern Family guys. Obviously the show lost a little ground this year in terms of nominations. Last year’s winner Eric Stonestreet wasn’t even nominated. But I still think any of those three guys are good for a win. Burrell has the most likable and relatable character, but he didn’t submit his best episode. Ed O’Neill is a respected television veteran that has yet to win an Emmy. With Bob Newhart winning in the Guest category, maybe it’s a good year for people with that status. But I’m going to go no guts, no glory and predict Jesse Tyler Ferguson for the win. Ferguson is well liked in the industry and had a banner year. He has a very popular foundation called Tie-the-Knot that supports marriage equality, he did Shakespeare in the Park over the summer, he guest judged on So You Think You Can Dance, he got married in real life. It feels like it is his year to win the Emmy.*

Winner Prediction: Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family

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Best Supporting Actress – Comedy Series:
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Jane Lynch, Glee
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie

*I’m a little bit reluctant to predict her again (even though I think she’s deserving)…but I think Julie Bowen looks pretty good for Emmy #3 in this category. None of the other nominees are new or noteworthy enough this year to topple somebody that the Emmys have favored for two years now. She also submitted her best episode again. But there are cases to be made for the other ladies. Sofia Vergara is on the same show and has yet to win. She had a pregnancy storyline this season that is usually Emmy bait, but her character has really been reduced to a stereotype and I don’t know how impressed the voters are going to be with her submitted episode. Jane Krakowski & Jane Lynch both returned to the category after being snubbed last year. I think voters are over Glee…but Lynch had a busy summer by starring on Broadway in Annie, hosting Hollywood Game Night, and of course the sympathy factor with the passing of Cory Monteith. I think she’s much more of a contender than people are giving her credit for. Jane Krakowski has yet to win for 30 Rock and she’s been talked about a lot in all of the Emmy coverage. This category favors goodbye wins more than the others. Mayim Bialik has a very quirky character that Emmy voters tend to lean towards. I could see her possibly winning this year. Anna Chlumsky and Merritt Wever are both very good on their shows, but I don’t think their strong enough to topple the other contenders in this category. I would be very surprised if either of their names were called on Emmy night.*

Winner Prediction: Julie Bowen, Modern Family

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