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Emmy Winner Predictions 2013: Best Comedy Series

The Emmys are less than a week away! This week I’m going to be taking a look at all of the major categories being handed out on Sunday night. Now that the Creative Arts Emmys were held on Sunday, it should be slightly easier to predict who will win. Let’s take a look….

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Best Comedy Series:
The Big Bang Theory
Girls
Louie
Modern Family
30 Rock
Veep

*Modern Family has won this award for the past three seasons pretty much uncontested. It was expected to win all three of those years and nobody was surprised. This year is very different. While it is still the frontrunner, it is not the unstoppable force it was the past couple of years. Before the nominations came out, I really thought this was going to be the year of The Big Bang Theory. It had a pretty good season and its ratings went through the roof. But I think the lack of nominations outside of Parsons & Bialik in the major categories suppressed that motion. However it still did pretty well in the tech nominations and actually received two Emmys on Sunday (for Bob Newhart and for its technical direction). It could still happen but it’s not as likely. Girls had another great season but it got mixed reviews from the critics. I don’t think it has what it takes to upset the category. Louie is an interesting case. It finally managed to make it into the main category and got a few more nominations this year. I just think it might be a little too new and experimental for the old stuffy Emmy voters to completely embrace. 30 Rock went out with a strong final season. It was unanimously praised and its nomination total saw an uptick from the previous year (which is usually rare for a show to rebound in Emmy nominations). Obviously its a beloved Emmy show, but it’s not the juggernaut it was in its early seasons. It’s a possibility but I wouldn’t count on it happening. Veep became a huge contender after the nominations were announced. It received more than expected, especially the surprising noms for Tony Hale & Anna Chlumsky. So Emmy voters obviously like it more than we thought. But I am hesitant to predict it without any nominations for writing or directing. I think next year should be the year it finally takes over the category. That leaves me with the safe choice of Modern Family winning for the fourth year in a row. It’s still a relatively good show, even if it was its weakest season. None of the other shows are strong enough yet to overtake it.*

Winner Prediction: Modern Family

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Best Writing – Comedy Series:
Episodes – “Episode Nine” – David Crane & Jeffrey Klarik
Louie – “Daddy’s Girlfriend, Part 1” – Pamela Adlon & Louis C.K.
The Office – “Finale” – Greg Daniels
30 Rock – “Hogcock!” – Jack Burditt & Robert Carlock
30 Rock – “Last Lunch” – Tina Fey & Tracey Wigfield

*This category is a complete toss-up. I would easily predict 30 Rock if both of its finale episodes had been combined in one nomination (like the directing category). I’m not sure how that got messed up with the nomination submissions, but I think it will cost them a win. The actual series finale episode stands a better chance because of Tina Fey but I think vote splitting will end up costing them. I don’t understand how Episodes got a nomination here, but it has no chance of winning with that episode. Another weird submission thing, I wish Louie had submitted both parts of “Daddy’s Girlfriend”. The second part has a great monologue scene with Parker Posey that would’ve clinched the win. I don’t know if the first part alone is impressive enough to take the trophy. And finally The Office was nominated for its series finale. Personally it would get my vote, but I think the Emmy voters are over the show and the nomination will be reward enough. I think I ruled out every single nominee here, but I have to choose one. I think Louie will win this category because they love Louis C.K. and will give these as a reward for the entire season and not just for that particular episode.*

Winner Prediction: Louie – “Daddy’s Girlfriend, Part 1” – Pamela Adlon & Louis C.K.

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Best Directing – Comedy Series:
Girls – “On All Fours” – Lena Dunham
Glee – “Diva” – Paris Barclay
Louie – “New Year’s Eve” – Louis C.K.
Modern Family – “Arrested” – Gail Mancuso
30 Rock – “Hogcock!/Last Lunch” – Beth McCarthy-Miller

*I was pretty much ruling out everything on the writing side, I can see any of these shows winning the Directing award. Glee is probably the least likely. It wasn’t a very memorable episode and I think it only got nominated because people respect Paris Barclay. If it wins it will be only for that reason. The other four shows are all tied for first, IMO. Modern Family has won this award for the past two years and this year there’s only one nomination for the show. There’s no threat of vote splitting. 30 Rock stands a very good chance for its series finale episode. Beth McCarthy-Miller has yet to win for the show and she’s a well respected director in the industry. And you can never bet against Louis C.K. He would be my personal preference and deserves to win it for the Christmas morning sequence featured in the nominated episode. But I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Lena Dunham for the win. I do personally love Dunham, but I think everything is working in her favor. Dunham won a DGA award in January for Girls so I think people are underestimating directors’ respect and admiration for her. And its the show’s best chance at winning an Emmy this year.*

Winner Prediction: Girls – “On All Fours” – Lena Dunham

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