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Emmy Winner Predictions 2013: Best Drama Series

The Emmys are less than a week away! This week I’m going to be taking a look at all of the major categories being handed out on Sunday night. Now that the Creative Arts Emmys were held on Sunday, it should be slightly easier to predict who will win. Let’s take a look….

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Best Drama Series:
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
Mad Men

*Mad Men had a hold on this category for four years until Homeland broke the streak last year. Now Mad Men isn’t even a contender anymore. I would be very surprised if Mad Men or Downton Abbey picked up a win here. They don’t really stand a chance. Game of Thrones doesn’t seem very likely either. It’s a big hit and got a few more Emmy nominations this year, but genre shows have a very difficult time winning the big category and I don’t think this year is the right year for it to win. House of Cards was better received at the Emmys than anybody expected. But I don’t think it’s nomination total was strong enough to warrant a win in the series category. I think it’s going to come down to a battle between Breaking Bad and Homeland. Breaking Bad has never been a main contender in the series category, but the show is growing increasingly in popularity this year (getting two writing nominations) and it had a very strong season. The new episodes that aired during the final voting period is going to be a big asset also. But I still think Homeland is going to pick up its second win in this category. The show had mixed reviews from critics, but I think people were just nitpicking and the show was still beloved by the general public. It has a solid 6 episodes that it submitted for the category that are going to be hard to beat. Emmy voters like to vote for the same things and there aren’t enough negatives against Homeland for anything to unseat it this year.*

Winner Prediction: Homeland

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Best Writing – Drama Series:
Breaking Bad – “Dead Freight” – George Mastras
Breaking Bad – “Say My Name” – Thomas Schnauz
Downton Abbey – “Episode 4” – Julian Fellowes
Game of Thrones – “The Rains of Castamere” – David Benioff & D.B. Weiss
Homeland – “Q&A” – Henry Bromell

*This is going to be a tight race. Downton Abbey seems to be the weakest of the bunch. It didn’t get as many nominations this year and its episode seems less impressive compared to the other four. But Julian Fellowes is a very respected writer and could win based on that alone. “The Rains of Castamere” was one of the most talked about episodes of the year…but it was mostly talked about its direction of the Red Wedding scene that closed out the episode. But it wasn’t even nominated for Best Directing. Maybe Emmy voters were not as impressed with the episode as everybody else in the world. Breaking Bad finally got back into the writing category after only being nominated for its pilot in 2008. But having two episodes could actually work against it. If I had to bet which episode was more likely to win, it would be “Say My Name”. The other episode was more impressive for its direction. And then there’s the Homeland episode “Q&A”. The nominated writer Henry Bromell unexpectedly passed away this year but what a final piece to have written. It’s a very impressive episode that was also nominated for Best Directing. I think Homeland is still going to be Emmy’s favorite show on Sunday night and having a writing win will be strong enough to support a Series win.*

Winner Prediction: Homeland – “Q&A” – Henry Bromell

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Best Directing – Drama Series:
Boardwalk Empire – “Margate Sands” – Tim Van Patten
Breaking Bad – “Gliding Over All” – Michelle MacLaren
Downton Abbey – “Episode 4” – Jeremy Webb
Homeland – “Q&A” – Lesli Linka Glatter
House of Cards – “Chapter 1” – David Fincher

*This is going to be another close race. Boardwalk Empire got the cold shoulder from the voters this year. It has won this category for the past two years but I don’t think it stands a chance this year without a Series nomination. Van Patten would be worthy of another win but it won’t happen. Downton Abbey‘s direction is probably going to seem less impressive compared to the other nominees too. The other three shows are in a dead heat for the win. Homeland is loved by the Emmy voters and could win based on show recognition. Glatter isn’t that well known of an actor but her directorial skills cannot be denied. House of Cards got more nominations than expected and David Fincher is a respected film director. While that works sometimes in this category, I don’t know if Fincher’s name alone is going to be enough to win. I think Breaking Bad will finally win a long overdue Directing award. MacLaren has become a well-known name in the television industry for her work on BB, Game of Thrones and The Walking Dead. This episode was a little obvious with the directing choices, but having showy work is never a problem when it comes to the Emmy voters.*

Winner Prediction: Breaking Bad – “Gliding Over All” – Michelle MacLaren

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