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Emmy Winner Predictions 2013: Drama Series Acting categories

The Emmys are less than a week away! This week I’m going to be taking a look at all of the major categories being handed out on Sunday night. Now that the Creative Arts Emmys were held on Sunday, it should be slightly easier to predict who will win. Let’s take a look….

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Best Actor – Drama Series:
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damian Lewis, Homeland
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

*Bryan Cranston had a hold on this category until Damian Lewis pulled off a suprising win last year. The streak was broken and now the category is back up in the air. Let’s take a look at the nominees. Hugh Bonneville should just be happy that voters loved Downton Abbey enough to get him another nomination. He won’t win. I also want to count out Jeff Daniels. He has an impressive tape but the lack of nominations for The Newsroom (especially in writing & directing) makes me think that they didn’t care for the show. Bryan Cranston could very well pick back up his streak and win his fourth Emmy for playing Walter White. Jon Hamm is on his sixth nomination without a win. He has a great tape but voters seem to be over Mad Men. Plus they can always award him for one of the final two half-seasons coming up. I think it’s going to come down to Lewis or Spacey. Damian Lewis has a very impressive tape this year and voters loved Homeland even more this season. But I think voters like to award shiny, new things sometimes and Spacey fits the bill. House of Cards was much more beloved by voters than anybody expected. He has a very showy, hammy performance that does well in this category. I’m going to go with Spacey for the win but it wouldn’t surprise me if Lewis picked up Emmy #2.*

Winner Prediction: Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

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Best Actress – Drama Series:
Connie Britton, Nashville
Claire Danes, Homeland
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Kerry Washington, Scandal
Robin Wright, House of Cards

*Obviously this category was so competitive that voters couldn’t make up their minds and seven ladies were nominated. That being said…I think Claire Danes will comfortably win another Emmy for Homeland. None of the other women nominated seem to be much of a threat. Connie Britton & Vera Farmiga received the sole nominations for their series. Obviously the women were well liked but that doesn’t mean their shows were received the same way. Elisabeth Moss had a good season on Mad Men but she didn’t have a showy enough tape to become the frontrunner. I don’t watch Downton Abbey but I hear that Michelle Dockery is in the same boat as Moss. Robin Wright is good on House of Cards but she is borderline supporting. That doesn’t always spell out a victory in the lead category. Scandal picked up a surprising win on Sunday night for Guest Actor. Voters liked it more than we expected. So Washington seems to be the biggest challenger, but I’m still hesistant to believe that she could get more votes than Danes.*

Winner Prediction: Claire Danes, Homeland

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Best Supporting Actor – Drama Series:
Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

*I’m going to rule out Bobby Cannavale right away. Voters really left Boardwalk Empire out in the cold this year. I think Cannavale only got in because he’s a respected actor and he’s an Emmy favorite. I don’t think that will be enough to win in this category. Jim Carter and Peter Dinklage also seem less likely to take home the trophy. Dinklage didn’t have a strong tape and Downton Abbey decreased in nominations this year. That leaves Banks, Patinkin and Paul battling it out for the win. I’m hesistant to predict Banks because Giancarlo Esposito didn’t win last year. Esposito had a great story arc last year but it wasn’t enough to take the category from Paul (who has won for the past two seasons of the show). Even though Banks has an amazing tape, I just don’t know if he’ll be able to do it if Esposito wasn’t able. Mandy Patinkin also has a great tape and voters loved the show this year more than last. I can see him being swept up in a wave of support from the people who love Homeland. But I’m sticking with my prediction of Aaron Paul winning Emmy #3. I think Paul has become a very respected actor because of the show and he has another great tape. And the new episodes that aired during the voting period this summer were a great showcase for Paul. I think that will come into play when people are filling out their ballots.*

Winner Prediction: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

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Best Supporting Actress – Drama Series:
Morena Baccarin, Homeland
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

*This category is a complete toss-up. I want to immediately rule out four of the nominees but that seems completely foolish. This category has had the most surprises of the past couple of years (Cherry Jones, Archie Panjabi). But I really don’t see Morena Baccarin, Christine Baranski, Emilia Clarke, or Christina Hendricks winning this year. Baccarin just got nominated based on support for Homeland, Baranski got in based on her name, Emilia Clarke has a memorable character on Game of Thrones but has a weak submission episode, and Christina Hendricks didn’t get a whole lot to do this season on Mad Men. That leaves a race between Anna Gunn and Maggie Smith. This is Gunn’s third nomination and she has a phenomenal tape. It’s easily the best performance in the category and she SHOULD win. But it’s stupid to ever predict against Maggie Smith. She has a very showy performance that has been award for the past two years. She’s a respected, legendary actress that people love. The biggest thing against her is that she never shows up to awards shows. She may deserve to win, but her lack of a presence at these awards show could lead people to believe that she doesn’t care about winning. I think the tide will finally change this year and Gunn will walk away with the trophy.*

Winner Prediction: Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad

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